Dustin Fletcher: Greatest of all Time?


This Friday night, Dustin Fletcher takes the field to play his 379th game, and in doing so he will become the outright games record holder for the Essendon Football Club – overtaking club legend Simon Madden. It is a remarkable achievement.

The match will take Fletcher to 4th on the all-time games list, behind fellow legends Michael Tuck (426), Kevin Bartlett (403), and Robert Harvey (383).

Dustin and his father, Ken, currently hold the league games record for a father-son combination, with 642.

Measured in time, rather than games, Fletcher has survived the second longest career on record. To set a new record he will need to play on until at least the middle of 2015.

His career has been so enduring, he has actually been teammates with three father-son combinations (Tim Watson and his son Jobe, and Anthony Daniher and his sons Darcy and Joe).

This weekend will also see the league’s current oldest player become the 6th oldest player ever to take the field.

During his elongated career, Fletcher’s freakish skills have been witnessed by an official attendance of 18,271,064 footy fans. The next highest is only 13 million.

These are some of the statistics that come from a long career, but longevity is only part of Fletcher’s greatness.

Fletcher’s career honours include a Rising Star nomination, two premierships, two All-Australian selections, and one Crichton medal (club best and fairest). These accolades do not do his career justice.

Dustin Fletcher is the greatest player of all time. And let me show you why…

Midfielders receive all the awards in the modern game, while forwards receive the glory and the money due to their finishing work, but in sport defence wins matches – and titles.

Defenders are usually underrated. Their best games often go unnoticed, while every little error is remembered. So rather than relying on perceptions based on flair or brute force, as is often the case with midfielders and forwards, demonstrating Fletcher’s value will require a few statistics.

Since Fletcher began his career in 1993, Essendon’s winning percentage has been 54.7% which is slightly below the club’s long term average of 57.4%. This demonstrates the figures I am about to show you are not merely a case of Fletcher being at a strong club during a successful period, as would be the case with most of Geelong’s current list.

Joel Selwood is an oft cited example. While his winning percentage of 81.3% is impressive – 11th of all time among those who have played more than 50 games – it is actually below that of his team over the same period, 81.8%. Selwood, along with most of the people on that list, has played in a successful team. Fletcher has made a team successful.

The following graph plots Essendon’s winning percentage over Fletcher’s career, both with and without the great man. Year after year, the statistics highlight how important he has been to the Bombers.

A few anomalies exist, but overall, the data speaks for itself.

Screenshot_2014-03-19-00-21-23_1

During Fletcher’s 21 seasons, his presence has accounted for a staggering 21% increase in the chances of victory. With Fletcher on the field, Essendon’s winning percentage has been 59.4%. Conversely, while sidelined, it has been an abysmal 38.4%.

To put such a lowly figure in perspective, over the same period Melbourne has a slightly higher winning percentage of 38.6%. By this measure, the inclusion of a player of Fletcher’s talents could have turned them into a consistent finals performer, possibly winning multiple premierships.

Other perennial failures such as Richmond, Fremantle, Footscray and St. Kilda have totalled: 43.3%, 43.4%, 49% and 50%, respectively.

Yet without Fletcher, Essendon has a worse record than all of these also-rans. The only teams less successful than an Essendon side without Fletcher are the two new expansion clubs.

The only team more successful than Essendon with Fletcher on the field over the same period is the all-conquering Geelong, with 63.5%.

For most players these figures could be dismissed as a sampling error, as they only miss a handful of games. In Fletcher’s case it cannot. All told, Fletcher has been on Essendon’s list for a total of 486 games, which means during his 378 game career he has missed 108 games through injury and suspension – and in recent years, being rested. (Technically 107, he debuted in round 2 of his first season.)

Mirroring the old tradesman’s adage of ‘I’ve forgotten more than you’ll ever know’, Fletcher has missed more games than most will ever play. This data is statistically significant.

While arguably less statistically significant, the same trend has occurred in finals, and to a much larger degree.

Essendon have competed in 12 finals campaigns during Fletcher’s career, at a winning percentage of 53.9%. While Fletcher has been on the ground, this has risen to 60.9%. Without him, 0%.

Screenshot_2014-03-19-22-56-12_1

Yes, you read that correctly. Essendon have not won a single finals match since the beginning of Fletcher’s career without him on the field. This could be a worry, should he ever decide to retire.

I challenge anyone to present a more important and influential player.

Were there an ‘all-time’ draft, involving every player to ever play the game, Fletcher would be my number one pick, without any hesitation.

Who would be your number one pick of all time? I’ve entered a few names to get the ball rolling, but feel free to add others to the list.

Don’t forget to visit The Bomber Shop to check out the official merchandise celebrating Fletcher’s milestone.

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  1. #1 by goons on March 24, 2014 - 10:21 am

    You forgot to put Fletcher as an option!

    Like

    • #2 by Steven Williamson on March 24, 2014 - 1:26 pm

      You sure? He’s on the list my end, perhaps there’s a technical fault cos the list is too long.

      It’s randomly ordered each visit to prevent those at the top getting preferential votes…

      Like

  2. #3 by uglybustard on March 25, 2014 - 11:01 pm

    based on your superb analysis, thank goodness the bombers are going to be utterly farked in the time after fletch mark 2 retires and fletch mark 3 comes along – if there is a mark 3? on number of games, Craig Bradley ripped off, 473 games all up SANFL – VFL/AFL and missed a dozen playing u-age cricket for aus early 80s. Hadda been born in Vic would be untouchable. But try telling that to KB

    Like

  3. #4 by Joe on April 20, 2014 - 2:42 am

    Fletcher while an all time great has only been All Australian twice and one of those times was on the bench. Darren Glass who probably won’t be held in the same regard has been selected 4 times (3 as FB). And highlighting Essendon’s poor % without Fletcher is only underlining their reliance on their incredibly durable and consistent key back rather then indicating his excellence.

    My point is while Fletcher is an incredible player he’s another example of longevity and durability inflating their perceived footballing ability. (ala Brent Harvey)

    All this being said if I was in charge of drafting for a club and needed to select a key defender I’d select Fletcher without hesitation. Who wouldn’t want 350+ high level games.

    Like

    • #5 by Steven Williamson on April 27, 2014 - 5:35 pm

      I get your point re: AA selection, but I’m trying to avoid subjective interpretations. AA Selection is not an objective measure of anything, it’s a popularity vote by mostly media clowns. To counter that I could say, well Malthouse answered the question as to who is the best full back in the modern era, in one word with no hesitation, ‘Fletcher’. I think his opinion carries more weight than those who choose the AA side. But in the end, it’s just an opinion.

      Hence the focus on his impact on the result. After all what is a player for if not to improve their chances of winning? You can have all the talent in the world, look flashy and have public support but if, like Ablett or Selwood, their presence in the team actually damages the team’s winning percentage, how can you claim they are important players? Geelong were thought to be passed it, then they lost Ablett but the next year proceeded to beat Collingwood, win in Perth, and take the next flag, feats they failed to achieve with him in the side and racking up 40+ possessions on those occasions.

      Like

  4. #6 by Simeon on July 12, 2017 - 11:24 am

    I agree with this sentiment. One of my side projects has a side-effect that I can see the relative contribution a player has to the outcome of a game. Dustin Fletcher at his lows has a greater impact on the outcome than any player at there PEAK that frequents the top ten lists that the media produce.

    I guess it all depends on what you judge ‘best’ to be. Someone may look nice style while, kick the goals, but their overall affect on the game is poor.

    A good example is I consistently get Gary Ablett Jr having a zero or negative impact on his first two years in AFL (though he has a steady improvement in impact as he continues his career).

    Liked by 1 person

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